Description

This analysis provides a forecast of AR prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-03-16 3.621808 4.345343 5.151925 6.114256 7.227468 8.470947 9.961097
2025-03-23 2.593632 3.567867 4.781582 6.387716 8.438120 10.947322 14.226784
2025-03-30 1.890790 2.937240 4.373492 6.447933 9.318988 13.097553 18.380591
2025-04-06 1.420328 2.463163 4.023177 6.453701 10.054908 15.087485 22.518241
2025-04-13 1.091034 2.095377 3.720486 6.429029 10.687587 16.951671 26.634403
2025-04-20 0.950251 1.988486 3.781229 6.937145 12.139267 20.104812 32.861643
2025-04-27 0.793870 1.809507 3.678837 7.147893 13.128645 22.637395 38.373558
2025-05-04 0.680090 1.679147 3.629448 7.426118 14.239352 25.436992 44.506591
2025-05-11 0.557342 1.495823 3.442328 7.419734 14.848773 27.464872 49.560347
2025-05-18 0.436506 1.280653 3.146737 7.155781 14.955816 28.646297 53.303311
2025-05-25 0.334663 1.077555 2.830985 6.793632 14.823108 29.381425 56.326130
2025-06-01 0.274098 0.959813 2.675290 6.727596 15.231590 31.083401 61.106714
2025-06-08 0.218500 0.838950 2.491906 6.584743 15.495739 32.591546 65.750500
2025-06-15 0.197311 0.813962 2.538057 6.961889 16.862386 36.266502 74.567680
2025-06-22 0.167141 0.749032 2.467829 7.058153 17.650489 38.905116 81.671974
2025-06-29 0.139273 0.680458 2.371820 7.075768 18.268215 41.258485 88.402334
2025-07-06 0.115099 0.614561 2.267212 7.053160 18.790350 43.457512 94.980058
2025-07-13 0.109774 0.621603 2.379487 7.604807 20.669859 48.529771 107.402428
2025-07-20 0.096913 0.591299 2.370517 7.833450 21.822038 52.187104 117.270824
2025-07-27 0.087163 0.570546 2.387407 8.134653 23.174598 56.352909 128.382970
2025-08-03 0.073064 0.521652 2.299297 8.127827 23.781168 58.979573 136.558628
2025-08-10 0.057171 0.453387 2.125267 7.842300 23.665005 60.036477 141.599834
2025-08-17 0.043176 0.384820 1.928457 7.450334 23.228215 60.346542 145.103796